London, May 14: England, slipping down the world rankings, have not won a test series for a year. Sri Lanka, vaulting upwards, have won a remarkable nine games in a row.

Few, though, will be banking on a Sri Lankan success in the first test at Lord's this week.

A win for the tourists would seem about as likely as a match-winning performance from an England spinner.

Skipper Sanath Jayasuriya continues to talk a brave game as his team goes into the three-match series starting on Thursday.

His bowling attack, however, shorn of the incomparable Muttiah Muralitharan, appears more bleating sheep than snarling wolf.

They retain other men of real note, of course. Their batsmen, despite some predictable early problems of acclimatization to the English drizzle and resulting seaming wickets, remain perfectly capable of posting imposing totals.

The exciting Mahela Jayawardene, in particular, has quickly found his feet with two centuries.

But, with record-breaking off-spinner Muralitharan still recuperating from shoulder treatment, it is hard to see Sri Lanka dismissing England twice at Lord's.

A draw, or even a home win, seems more likely.

If Sri Lanka are to triumph for a 10th time, left-arm pace bowler Chaminda Vaas and his snaking inswingers will play a pivotal role.

On the brink of 200 test wickets, he has often laboured without due recognition in Muralitharan's considerable shadow and Nasser Hussain's team will be well aware of his qualities.

Coach Dav Whatmore also knows that Vaas holds the key if Sri Lanka are to live up to their ambition of moving on from being perceived as 'Muralitharan and 10 others' to being "a world force...a team that cannot be taken lightly in any conditions, against any opposition".

The likes of pace bowlers Nuwan Zoysa, Ruchira Perera and Charitha Buddika, though, are less likely to cause much fretting.

Zoysa, set to open the bowling with Vaas, has only managed four wickets on tour at 40.5 runs each and has gone for almost five an over. Perera has eight wickets but Buddika has taken just two at 90.5.

The rain and frequent stoppages during their 'warm-up matches' have hardly helped.

England, themselves short of leading quick bowler Darren Gough with knee problems, know that Lord's offers them the perfect chance of catching their opponents cold, as occurred last season against Pakistan and against Zimbabwe in 2000.

Both those damp, green-top games were won by England by an innings, with every single wicket claimed by the home team's seamers and swing bowlers.